Winter solstice 22.12.11 - weather mystery

[a_haworthroberts]

I consider this, based on March and April (and May looks like starting wet and none too warm as well), to be the MOST bizarre UK Spring on record (records beginning in 1910).

I will post again midweek, once final Met Office April stats for rainfall and temperature are in.

[a_haworthroberts]

The change from very warm, very dry and very sunny weather - to very wet and persistently cool weather - did of course happen more or less as March changed to April. Thus accentuating the statistical impact of the kind of change that HAS occurred in some previous springs. But the change this year was also significant because it wasn't simply a week of heat followed by a week of floods and cold, but a change from WEEKS of one kind of weather to WEEKS of an opposite kind.

[cathy]

We have freezing cold rain (not literally). Sunday rain, wind and weather forecast said five degrees. I was i Stratford and frozen. Not spring weather at all.

[a_haworthroberts]

"I've just returned to the UK from abroad and I'd like to report a huge water leak visible from my home, please."

"OK. Whereabouts is the leak?"

"Somerset."

"Yes, but whereabouts?"

"No! You don't understand. SOMERSET...".

[a_haworthroberts]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets

Here are the - almost final at the time of writing - details of this
strange 'backwards' Spring that we have been experiencing so far in the UK.

March 2012 April 2012
UK mean temperature 7.7 C Either 6.2 C or 6.3 C
UK rainfall 36.4 mm More than 121.8 mm

It has been the wettest April recorded in just over 100 years' of
records. March was the fifth driest March in the record.

March was also the third warmest in the record. April 2012 was, as
expected, the coldest April since 1989.

For an April to be around 1.5 Celsius cooler than the preceding month
is UNPRECEDENTED during the last 100 years! Whilst Spring warmth can
often be followed by Spring cold, the only other previous broadly
similar pattern between March and April was in 1938 when April was just
over 1 C cooler.

I checked to see whether any May mean temperatures have been well
below April of the same year. The answer? Not even ONCE, in just over
100 years, has a May been cooler than April of the same year.

I'm about to read an article on the BBC News website, just spotted, about the April temperature.

[Peter Henderson]

Indeed Ashley, where is that Bartlett high that was stuck with us all through the winter and gave us the warmest Christmas day on record (we never got the cold spell in early February). Gone. Now we have a persistant high pressure to the north, over Iceland, with a Northeasterly/Northerly airflow. As Dr. John once sang, right place wrong time. If only this set up had been December/January. GRRRRRRRRR.

Still, hope the weather in Salou (60 miles south of Barcelona) improves between now and the 19th June. It's not great in Barcelona at the moment.

[a_haworthroberts]

This could be the chilliest May for the UK as a whole since the frigid May of 1996 (mean 8.0 Celsius).

[a_haworthroberts]

And probably in the top ten of dullest Mays in just over 100 years.

(If it's the chilliest May since 1996, that might still mean there were around 30 colder Mays on record than this year - but none of them were after 1996!)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets

[a_haworthroberts]

It's a bit damp outside, and there's a Amber Warning of persistent rain for this part of England.

Daily Express headline for Tuesday - 'London Rush Hour Hit By Flood Disaster'?

Or perhaps I'm being pessimistic. I think the days of the hosepipe ban are numbered though.

I wonder how much less rain the UK will get this month than it did in the record-breakingly wet June of 2007.

There's a hint, no more at this stage, that by Friday Cornwall could be under water and with easterly gales - just in time to edge north next weekend. They could have another caravan river flotilla perhaps, like the one in Ceredigion on Saturday?

There's also a vague hint that Summer might return sometime after 24 June (midsummer day).

EDIT: my prediction of a dull and cool May overall, as above, proved wrong! It was AVERAGE.

[Peter Henderson]

At least it's not just us this summer Ashley.

It seems to be far worse in England this year !

[a_haworthroberts]

The next summer depression, arriving tomorrow night and bringing prolonged heavy rain and gales or severe gales in places, looks like it particularly has Cornwall, Devon, Pembrokeshire and the Irish Republic in its sights.

[a_haworthroberts]

If you are in the UK, try not to blink this Wednesday. You might miss the Summer.

[a_haworthroberts]

If anybody is wondering which was the worst UK Summer between 1910 and the present day, I suggest that there is no doubt which it is (having checked Met Office statistics here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ ... ked/UK.txt and here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ ... ked/UK.txt)

1912. Precisely 100 years' ago. It was by far the wettest summer on record. Both June and August appear to have been particularly appalling.

I am confident that August 2012 will not be quite as bad as August 1912. A description of the latter can be read here: http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~tahar ... august.htm
"The wettest (average 183 mm, 231%), dullest, and the coldest (12.9C CET) of the century. This is the only month which holds all three worst records, so it is without doubt the worst summer month on record. London only had one day over 21C, but Birmingham and Manchester had nothing higher than 19C. It didn't make 16C at all in Aberdeen. There was local frost on the 3rd. Some places had 250% of the normal rainfall. There were many days with over 25 mm of rain and maxima beneath 16C. On the 26th a deepening depression brough severe weather to East Anglia, resulting in the Great Norfolk Flood. There were 206 mm at Brundall, and 186 mm of rain at Norwich, with the rain continuing for 30 hours from the 26th into the 27th. The pressure at Great Yarmouth was 978 mbars. 100 mm of rain was widespread over Norfolk and Suffolk, with a westerly gale. The worst flooding caused by rain in East Anglia on record. Norwich was cut off for two days, with over 40 bridges destroyed, with flooding 15' deep in places. Three people drowned, an one particular variety of Norwich canary was lost. Much of the Fens stayed under water through the following winter. Widespread gales midmonth. It was not surprisingly an extremely dull month, with an average of just 94 hours. The highest temperature recorded all month was under 23C (73F) at Welshpool on the 4th."

[a_haworthroberts]

Back to 2012.

The Met Office are worried about possible flooding in Lancashire late Friday and early Saturday. (Not ideal for the Olympic Torch relay.)

[cathy]

Whats it looking like in cumbria? Second child is going there (Keswick) for a few days on a geography field trip on Monday. A geography field trip that will be essential for her gcse controlled assessments (coursework done under controlled conditions in school, like an exam - replacing coursework done at home, tho thickie Gove doesn't seem to have been told that - then again thickie Gove knows absolutely nothing about the dept he's supposed to run, thickie Gove would fail any exam he took on schools, exams and eduction in the UK). someone said severe weather warnings for the Lake District

How do home schoolers do things like controlled assessments and exams? Does Garner act as invigilator?

She needs it for the geology part and the study of tourism part. Will it be flooded? Will there be enough tourists there to question and annoy? If anyone is there and sees her please be nice and answer the questions.